HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0429

Time	Data and Events	Importance
14:00	Germany’s May Gfk Consumer Confidence Index	★★★
17:00	Eurozone’s April Industrial Sentiment Index	★★★
	Eurozone’s April Economic Sentiment Index	★★★
20:00	U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant will attend a press conference	★★★
20:30	U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant will give a brief speech to the media	★★★
21:00	U.S. February FHFA House Price Index MoM	★★★
	U.S. February S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index YoY	★★★
22:00	U.S. March JOLTs Job Openings	★★★
	U.S. April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Weak oscillation	96-97	100-101
Gold	Short-term correction	3260-3270	3380-3400
Crude Oil	Short-term oscillation	59-60	65-66
Euro	Strong oscillation	1.1300-1.1350	1.1600-1.1650

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In March, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, the labor market remained stable, raised inflation expectations for this year and next, and lowered GDP growth expectations for the next three years. Starting in April, the pace of balance sheet reduction will slow, and there is uncertainty regarding tariff policies. In March, non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 228,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly rose, indicating a strong labor market. Tariff policies increase market risks and uncertainties. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year in March slightly decreased, raising expectations for future interest rate cuts. Attention is on Friday’s non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index slightly retreated in the overnight session, but prices did not significantly create new lows. The short cycle is oscillating, and there are signs of slowing decline recently. In the short term, it may continue the oscillating structure, and there are no signs of a major stabilization yet. Attention is on whether the pressure structure can break through. Overall, prices have retreated from high levels, breaking through important support areas, and there are no signs of stabilization yet. The upper pressure area is around 100-101, and the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Weak oscillation, signs of slowing decline, and short-term oscillation may continue.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are escalating, and there is uncertainty in the Eastern European situation. The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision marked the sixth consecutive 25 basis point cut, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat strengthening. In March, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision maintained the status quo, the labor market remained stable, and GDP growth expectations were lowered, with plans to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction. The U.S. March non-farm data showed a significant increase in jobs exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly rose; the March CPI year-on-year slightly decreased, raising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. U.S. tariff policies may stimulate gold’s safe-haven attributes. Attention is on Friday’s non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

The price of gold has recently shown a volatile trend, fluctuating back and forth within a range, with resistance above and support below. In the future, attention will be paid to the direction of the breakout; if it falls below the support, the market will further weaken. From a long-term perspective, the upward structure is maintained, and we are currently in a secondary adjustment phase, with no signs of stabilization yet. The upper resistance level is around 3380-3400, while the lower support level is around 3260-3270.

Viewpoint: Short-term correction, small cycle oscillation structure, pay attention to the direction of the breakout.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The April EIA monthly report basically maintains the oil production for this and next year, slightly lowering the global oil demand for this and next year; the OPEC monthly report slightly lowers the global economic growth forecast for this year and next year, as well as the global oil demand growth forecast for this and next year; the IEA monthly report lowers the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the beginning of April, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting maintained the oil production policy unchanged and agreed to exceed expectations for increased production in May. The uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies may affect the demand side. Pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil futures slightly retreated overnight, with selling pressure above, and there are signs of a breakdown at the current position, which may weaken the market. In the short term, it may test the lower support area again, at which point we will look for stabilization signals. Overall, crude oil has performed relatively weakly in the past, with a rebound at low levels, but no signs of major stabilization have appeared yet. The upper pressure area is around 65-66, while the lower support area is around 59-60.

Viewpoint: Short-term oscillation, small cycle performance is relatively weak, may retest the support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat enhanced. The bank relies on data, evaluates successively, and dynamically adjusts its monetary policy stance, paying attention to trade situations. The Federal Reserve’s March interest rate decision remained unchanged, raising inflation expectations while lowering GDP growth expectations, and will slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction. The U.S. non-farm payrolls in March significantly exceeded expectations, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate; the March CPI year-on-year slightly decreased. The manufacturing PMI values of major Eurozone countries showed little change in April. Pay attention to the U.S. non-farm data on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price rose slightly yesterday, with a small cycle showing oscillation. There may be selling pressure above, so be cautious of the risk of a market correction. For long positions, consider reducing holdings to take profits at highs, and pay attention to the effectiveness of the support structure. If this area is broken, the market will weaken. Overall, the long-term upward structure remains intact, and the short-term is in an adjustment phase, focusing on the effectiveness of the support area. The upper pressure area is around 1.1600-1.1650, while the lower support area is around 1.1300-1.1350.

Viewpoint: Oscillation is biased towards strength, reduce long positions to take profits at highs, and pay attention to the effectiveness of the support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.